NFL Week 11 Picks

November 19th, 2015 No comments

I disagree with some of these picks (ex Dolphins over Cowboys, especially with Romo returning) but the point of this blog is to follow the model and see what it can predict:

Titans @ Jaguars (JAX by 4.758) Thursday at 8:25PM

Rams @ Ravens (BAL by 2.129) Sunday at 1:00PM

Redskins @ Panthers (CAR by 7.516) Sunday at 1:00PM

Broncos @ Bears (DEN by -3.577) Sunday at 1:00PM

Cowboys @ Dolphins (MIA by 6.017) Sunday at 1:00PM

Raiders @ Lions (OAK by -2.197) Sunday at 1:00PM

Jets @ Texans (NYJ by -2.135) Sunday at 1:00PM

Colts @ Falcons (ATL by 6.464) Sunday at 1:00PM

Buccaneers @ Eagles (PHI by 13.253) Sunday at 1:00PM

Chiefs @ Chargers (KC by -7.231) Sunday at 4:05PM

Packers @ Vikings (MIN by 2.799) Sunday at 4:25PM

49ers @ Seahawks (SEA by 14.285) Sunday at 4:25PM

Bengals @ Cardinals (ARI by 4.466) Sunday at 8:30PM

Bills @ Patriots (NE by 14.181) Monday at 8:30PM

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NFL Week 11 Power Rankings

November 19th, 2015 No comments

My last week picks were terrible – 4-10 (28.57%) but it looks like there were a lot of upsets league-wide among people making picks.  My season overall is now 41-28 (59.42%).  I expect a rebound in Week 11.

Power Rankings

  1. Patriots -14.80622451
  2. Cardinals -10.2293053
  3. Bengals -8.763174038
  4. Steelers -6.413662666
  5. Chiefs -5.151734659
  6. Panthers -4.603024718
  7. Jets -3.664813218
  8. Bills -3.625713379
  9. Broncos -3.581127935
  10. Eagles -2.93697678
  11. Seahawks -2.61196403
  12. Packers -2.292418826
  13. Vikings -2.092338505
  14. Falcons -1.282686045
  15. Giants -1.242796698
  16. Redskins -0.086722419
  17. Dolphins 1.126202639
  18. Texans 1.470545421
  19. Rams 1.676185748
  20. Colts 2.181712649
  21. Ravens 2.547680678
  22. Raiders 2.694533663
  23. Bears 2.995927035
  24. Cowboys 4.143298917
  25. Chargers 5.079023807
  26. Jaguars 5.326911624
  27. Saints 6.03443556
  28. Titans 7.084545616
  29. Browns 7.142959543
  30. Buccaneers 7.316044107
  31. Lions 7.891491635
  32. 49ers 8.673185084
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NFL Week 10 Picks

November 12th, 2015 No comments

Last week my picks took a dip – I was 8-5 (61.54%).  Overall record for this year: 37 and 18 (67.28%).

Week 10 Picks

Bills @ Jets (NYJ by 5.45) – Thursday 8:25PM EST

Jaguars @ Ravens (BAL by 10.39) – Sunday 1PM EST

Panthers @ Titans (CAR by -7.00) – Sunday 1PM EST

Browns @ Steelers (PIT by 19.47) – Sunday 1PM EST

Bears @ Rams (STL by 11.79) – Sunday 1PM EST

Cowboys @ Buccaneers (DAL by -2.56) – Sunday 1PM EST

Lions @ Packers (GB by 17.92) – Sunday 1PM EST

Dolphins @ Eagles (PHI by 10.20) – Sunday 1PM EST

Saints @ Redskins (NO by 3.76) – Sunday 1PM EST

Vikings @ Raiders (OAK by 3.44) – Sunday 4:05PM EST

Chiefs @ Broncos (DEN by 6.54) – Sunday 4:25PM EST

Patriots @ Giants (NE by -12.09) – Sunday 4:25PM EST

Cardinals @ Seahawks (ARI by -4.49) – Sunday 8:30PM EST

Texans @ Bengals (CIN by 19.42) – Monday 8:30PM EST

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NFL Week 10 Power Rankings

November 10th, 2015 No comments
  1. Patriots -15.23350194
  2. Bengals -11.59423005
  3. Cardinals -10.68961631
  4. Steelers -7.179150234
  5. Broncos -5.967273853
  6. Jets -4.590993208
  7. Packers -4.222174736
  8. Eagles -3.903767864
  9. Panthers -3.430720863
  10. Seahawks -3.203202099
  11. Chiefs -2.427371874
  12. Bills -2.137999935
  13. Rams -2.057283249
  14. Falcons -0.917112126
  15. Raiders -0.155903831
  16. Giants -0.144381036
  17. Ravens -0.028199587
  18. Vikings 0.282155777
  19. Colts 2.32688458
  20. Redskins 2.785289623
  21. Cowboys 3.261711377
  22. Dolphins 3.305328141
  23. Saints 3.544170557
  24. Chargers 4.591564755
  25. Browns 4.786467188
  26. Texans 4.826568846
  27. Titans 6.569886712
  28. Bears 6.734507764
  29. Jaguars 7.361256433
  30. 49ers 7.982336128
  31. Buccaneers 8.824400442
  32. Lions 10.70035447
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NFL Week 9 Picks

November 5th, 2015 No comments

My current record is 29-13 (69.1%) and that percentage has increased every week.

This past week was my highest pick percentage (12/14 – 85.7%).

Week 9 Picks

Browns @ Bengals (CIN by 18.4) – Thursday 8:25PM EST

Dolphins @ Bills (BUF by 6.13) – Sunday 1PM EST

Jaguars @ Jets (NYJ by 18.67) – Sunday 1PM EST

Redskins @ Patriots (NE by 21.24) – Sunday 1PM EST

Raiders @ Steelers (PIT by 7.56) – Sunday 1PM EST

Packers @ Panthers (GB by -0.38) – Sunday 1PM EST

Rams @ Vikings (MIN by 0.39) – Sunday 1PM EST

Titans @ Saints (NO by 9.19) – Sunday 1PM EST

Giants @ Buccaneers (NYG by -4.34) – Sunday 4:05PM EST

Falcons @ 49ers (ATL by -7.13) – Sunday 4:05PM EST

Broncos @ Colts (DEN by -9.09) – Sunday 4:25PM EST

Eagles @ Cowboys (PHI by -3.86) – Sunday 8:30PM EST

Bears @ Chargers (SD by 7.33) – Monday 8:30PM EST

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NFL Week 9 Power Rankings

November 4th, 2015 No comments

My picks last week went 12/14 (85.7%).  Here are the power rankings for Week 9:

  1. Patriots (-15.11929536)
  2. Bengals (-11.61954774)
  3. Cardinals (-10.9237947)
  4. Broncos (-7.979309623)
  5. Steelers (-6.613999158)
  6. Jets (-6.108519772)
  7. Packers (-5.485099536)
  8. Eagles (-3.688316896)
  9. Seahawks (-3.167637899)
  10. Chiefs (-2.691362328)
  11. Rams (-2.509169546)
  12. Panthers (-2.108256961)
  13. Raiders (-2.057640377)
  14. Falcons (-1.407109517)
  15. Ravens (-0.717281602)
  16. Bills (-0.039281333)
  17. Vikings (0.099837334)
  18. Giants (1.062188476)
  19. Saints (2.45219902)
  20. Chargers (2.950333679)
  21. Dolphins (3.090401648)
  22. Redskins (3.120679248)
  23. Cowboys (3.170602492)
  24. Browns (3.787522572)
  25. Colts (4.107010639)
  26. Texans (5.575017203)
  27. Bears (7.283308903)
  28. Buccaneers (8.405250455)
  29. Titans (8.64554756)
  30. 49ers (8.71812925)
  31. Jaguars (9.558694259)
  32. Lions (10.20889962)
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NFL Week 8 Picks

October 29th, 2015 No comments

My current record is 17-11 (60.7%).  I expect that to increase over the next few weeks as the model’s accuracy improves over time.

Dolphins @ Patriots (NE by 18.34) – Thursday 8:25PM EST

Lions @ Chiefs (KC by 10.28) – Sunday 9:30AM EST

Buccaneers @ Falcons (ATL by 18.09) – Sunday 1PM EST

Cardinals @ Browns (ARI by -11.92) – Sunday 1PM EST

49ers @ Rams (STL by 12.24) – Sunday 1PM EST

Giants @ Saints (NO by 0.429) – Sunday 1PM EST

Vikings @ Bears (MIN by -4.7) – Sunday 1PM EST

Chargers @ Ravens (BAL by 6.92) – Sunday 1PM EST

Bengals @ Steelers (CIN by -0.188) – Sunday 1PM EST

Titans @ Texans (HOU by 3.15) – Sunday 1PM EST

Jets @ Raiders (NYJ by -8.03) – Sunday 4:05PM EST

Seahawks @ Cowboys (SEA by -3.16) – Sunday 4:25PM EST

Packers @ Broncos (DEN by 0.53) – Sunday 8:30PM EST

Colts @ Panthers (CAR by 10.49) – Monday 8:30PM EST

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NFL Week 8 Power Rankings

October 29th, 2015 No comments
  1. Patriots -14.37455701
  2. Cardinals -10.75322665
  3. Bengals -9.556232098
  4. Jets -9.174867123
  5. Packers -7.034601794
  6. Steelers -6.367833781
  7. Eagles -5.241887278
  8. Broncos -4.564489054
  9. Falcons -4.516774385
  10. Seahawks -3.805418314
  11. Panthers -2.973959389
  12. Rams -1.813875553
  13. Giants -0.432202264
  14. Bills -0.319707254
  15. Ravens 0.029670411
  16. Vikings 0.374108832
  17. Chiefs 0.953946185
  18. Dolphins 0.9670512
  19. Raiders 1.850827279
  20. Redskins 1.909178628
  21. Saints 2.138596115
  22. Cowboys 2.356827538
  23. Chargers 3.952989289
  24. Browns 4.168553483
  25. Colts 4.522459696
  26. Texans 6.7521899
  27. Titans 6.899741907
  28. 49ers 7.430051697
  29. Bears 8.074624605
  30. Lions 8.236078873
  31. Jaguars 9.735786958
  32. Buccaneers 10.57694935
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NFL Week 7 Picks Recap

October 27th, 2015 No comments

I only had a 1-game swing in correct picks this week, but an increase is an increase:

Record for this week: 9-5 (64.3%)

Overall Record: 17-11 (60.7%)

Correct Picks:

Seahawks over 49ers
Redskins over Buccaneers
Falcons over Titans
Vikings over Lions
Rams over Browns
Dolphins over Texans
Patriots over Jets
Giants over Cowboys
Cardinals over Ravens

Incorrect Picks:

Bills over Jaguars
Colts over Saints (NSC was actually -0.38 in favor of Saints)
Steelers over Chiefs
Chargers over Raiders
Eagles over Panthers

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NFL Week 7 Picks

October 22nd, 2015 No comments

Here is a quick recap of my 2013 picks from when the model was originally used:

2013-NFLPickPercentage

If you notice, the numbers increase around Week 6 where teams really start to show who they are.  By then, coaches know what to expect from each team week-to-week and can game plan effectively.

 

“NSC” is Neutral Site Calculation – the projected spread at a neutral site.  In close games, the favor sometimes switches to the other team.  I mention NSC a few times below.

 

Seahawks @ 49ers (SEA by -3.21) Thursday 8:25PM EST

No objection to the model.  The Seahawks are a better team than their record and the 49ers are not what they once were.  This used to be a game fans looked forward to watching.

Bills @ Jaguars (BUF by -11.87) Sunday 9:30AM EST

Since this game is played in London, the NSC is actually -14.87 in favor of the Bills.  With Tyrod and McCoy returning I don’t see how the Bills can lose this game.  Plus they win every other game and they lost last week, so there’s that.

Buccaneers @ Redskins (WAS by 18.68) Sunday 1PM EST

The Redskins will win and I’m starting their defense in a fantasy league this week.  DeSean Jackson will probably not play but the Skins will get Jordan Reed back to help Pierre Garcon catch errant passes from Kirk Cousins.  The Bucs run game is good though – I don’t think this game will be a blowout.  I think it will be closer than a 18 point beating, and the model will lower the Redskins in next week’s Power Rankings.

Falcons @ Titans (ATL by -12.23) Sunday 1PM EST

Titans will be starting Zach Mettenberger as Mariota has a sprained MCL.  I don’t think Zach Mettenberger can beat Dan Quinn’s defense.  I also have my doubts about the team facing the Matt Ryan/Julio Jones/Devonta Freeman trio on offense.  I am also starting the Falcons in two Fantasy leagues.

Saints @ Colts (IND by 2.62) Sunday 1PM EST

This will be close, as the NSC is -0.38 in favor of the Saints.  Both teams are playing middling offense and defense.  The Saints did beat the Falcons and have had a few more days rest.  I could go either way, but I will default to the model here.

Vikings @ Lions (MIN by -3.8) Sunday 1PM EST

The Vikings are finally playing as a balanced team on offense.  The Lions have one win this year against the Bears.  If the Lions get their running game fixed they can beat Minnesota.  I don’t think they do it this week though.

Steelers @ Chiefs (PIT by -10.75) Sunday 1PM EST

The Steelers are one of the top rated teams from the Power Rankings.  They have been able to win some games without Big Ben, and their defense is playing better.  I think this game could be closer than the model suggests, and I don’t know how Landry Jones will be able to handle Arrowhead Stadium.

Browns @ Rams (STL by 6.85) Sunday 1PM EST

The Browns were almost able to beat the Broncos last week, and I believe if they can somehow stop the run (Todd Gurley) they could pull out a W.  However, St. Louis is coming off a bye and Cleveland’s offense is mediocre.

Texans @ Dolphins (MIA by 7.53) Sunday 1PM EST

The Dolphins woke up last week, and played lights out defensively.   Let’s see if they can continue that momentum into this week.  Dan Campbell is relying more on the running game than Joe Philbin ever did.  I think Houston is a great team on paper they just can’t figure it out on game day.

Jets @ Patriots (NE by 8.31) Sunday 1PM EST

Billed as the first big test for the Tom Brady “we’ll show YOU guys” winning campaign, I think the Patriots come out with the win here.  I don’t think the Jets can offensively keep up with the Patriots.  The only solution would be a heavy dose of Chris Ivory to keep Brady off the field as much as possible.  Couple that with blitzing and mid-field coverage of Edelman and Gronk and it could happen.  Unfortunately for the Jets, they can cover outside receivers extremely well – the Patriots don’t throw to their outside receivers 90% of the time.

Raiders @ Chargers (SD by 5.02) Sunday 4:05PM EST

The Chargers are number 1 in Passing and Overall Offense.  The Raiders are 31st in Passing Defense.  I don’t know how the Raiders can win this game without forcing a bunch of turnovers.  Philip Rivers is an every week starter in daily fantasy leagues and this week is no exception.

Cowboys @ Giants (NYG by 6.15) Sunday 4:25PM EST

This would be a much better game if Tony Romo or Dez Bryant was playing.  Since I am assuming Dez will play it safe and not play, the Giants will win this matchup.  It will be interesting to see if Matt Cassel can keep it close.

Eagles @ Panthers (PHI by -6.84) Sunday 8:30PM EST

I think the model hates the Panthers because even though they are undefeated they are middle of the pack in the Power Rankings.  I would personally pick the Panthers here as they are playing well and Sam Bradford is not.  This is the model’s only upset pick this week against Las Vegas odds.

Ravens @ Cardinals (ARI by 15.68) Monday 8:30PM EST

It’s too bad the NFL cannot flex Monday Night Football games because this would have been flexed out.  I don’t think the Ravens have a shot here, although I am starting the Elite (?) Joe Flacco in one fantasy league where Aaron Rodgers is on bye.

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